The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15NC45
# Created Tue Sep 2 01:10:50 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 23 observations of 23
# Arc: 0.84y
# First observation: 2014/09/18
# Last observation: 2015/07/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000024 0.020239 -0.000001 0.015378 0.022446 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 7.94 DOF: 40 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.20 0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.370308E-05 1.983294E-02 1.090222E-05 1.545889E-02 2.294911E-02 3.319534E-04
# Covariance matrix:
4.1301E-13 1.2748E-11 -2.8491E-14 7.3668E-12 7.8543E-12 5.7822E-10
1.2748E-11 1.4935E-09 -3.2726E-12 6.9678E-10 5.3993E-10 5.5311E-08
-2.8491E-14 -3.2726E-12 1.7316E-13 -1.7284E-12 -1.1861E-12 -1.2132E-10
7.3668E-12 6.9678E-10 -1.7284E-12 3.3858E-10 2.8315E-10 2.6781E-08
7.8543E-12 5.3993E-10 -1.1861E-12 2.8315E-10 2.6993E-10 2.2322E-08
5.7822E-10 5.5311E-08 -1.2132E-10 2.6781E-08 2.2322E-08 2.1211E-06
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
9.805151 -22.566672 -0.303781 0.163669 -0.946481 2456918.747608
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2456910.5000 = 2014/09/10
Mean Anomaly: 1.52894 +/- 5.740
Argument of Peri: 11.94477 +/- 12.764
Long of Asc Node: 325.76702 +/- 0.005
Inclination: 38.96859 +/- 0.011
Eccentricity: 0.35055078 +/- 0.0062
Semi-Major Axis: 68.51832212 +/- 0.3923
Time of Perihelion: 2456030.6738 +/- 3303.3
Perihelion: 44.49917101 +/- 0.4924
Aphelion: 92.53747323 +/- 0.6769
Period (y) 567.1766 +/- 4.87
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 40.65186360 +/- 0.0284
Ecliptic Y -16.56400748 +/- 0.0118
Ecliptic Z 7.42118198 +/- 0.0053
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00064932 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00228594 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00182418 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 44.51981918 +/- 0.0263
Geocenter to KBO 43.57466659 +/- 0.0312
# Hcoef: 8.58
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15NC45. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15NC45) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 09 18.24683 22 21 59.96 +00 20 01.5 25.7g 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 18.25107 22 21 59.93 +00 20 01.5 26.1g 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 18.27261 22 21 59.85 +00 20 01.0 25.4g 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 22.24066 22 21 43.54 +00 18 41.2 24.9r 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 22.24493 22 21 43.53 +00 18 40.9 25.1r 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 22.27924 22 21 43.38 +00 18 40.2 24.7r 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 22.31871 22 21 43.23 +00 18 39.6 25.1r 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 22.35060 22 21 43.09 +00 18 38.9 25.2i 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2014 09 22.35604 22 21 43.07 +00 18 38.6 25.2i 15NC45 T09 C~90Hg 2015 07 15.46937 22 29 25.99 +01 47 17.1 25.4r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 15.47587 22 29 25.96 +01 47 16.9 25.0r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 15.49326 22 29 25.90 +01 47 16.9 24.9r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 15.55122 22 29 25.72 +01 47 16.9 25.1r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.45521 22 29 06.15 +01 47 17.9 24.7i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.48716 22 29 06.04 +01 47 17.9 24.8i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.54697 22 29 05.84 +01 47 17.9 24.8i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.57675 22 29 05.72 +01 47 17.9 24.8i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.60639 22 29 05.62 +01 47 17.9 24.7i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.42468 22 29 02.77 +01 47 16.2 24.8z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.44091 22 29 02.70 +01 47 16.2 24.3z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.44360 22 29 02.70 +01 47 16.2 24.3z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.46248 22 29 02.64 +01 47 16.2 24.6z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.48140 22 29 02.57 +01 47 16.4 25.2z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.05
2 0.0000 -0.42 -0.14 0.17 0.09
3 0.0001 -1.72 -0.01 0.14 -0.03
4 0.0109 -258.57 0.03 15.79 0.14
5 0.0109 -258.82 0.05 15.56 -0.10
6 0.0110 -261.17 -0.08 15.74 -0.05
7 0.0111 -263.49 0.16 16.01 0.06
8 0.0112 -265.70 0.02 16.13 0.06
9 0.0113 -266.09 -0.02 15.96 -0.13
10 0.8220 8148.72 0.22 2415.75 0.20
11 0.8220 8148.23 0.01 2415.72 0.05
12 0.8220 8147.39 -0.06 2416.05 0.04
13 0.8222 8144.88 -0.00 2417.05 -0.09
14 0.8384 7871.88 -0.14 2525.63 0.01
15 0.8384 7870.35 -0.08 2526.23 0.03
16 0.8386 7867.55 0.13 2527.33 0.03
17 0.8387 7865.88 -0.05 2527.99 0.15
18 0.8388 7864.48 0.04 2528.54 0.16
19 0.8410 7824.05 -0.03 2542.64 -0.20
20 0.8411 7823.07 -0.19 2543.02 -0.11
21 0.8411 7823.07 -0.05 2543.02 -0.16
22 0.8411 7822.23 0.07 2543.35 -0.17
23 0.8412 7821.33 0.13 2543.92 0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15NC45 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 69.198 75.184 68.416 ecceobj 0.357 0.439 0.350 incobj 38.857 38.867 38.885 qmin 42.751 40.159 42.727 qmax 96.225 111.271 94.630 amean 68.832 74.859 68.105 amin 68.062 73.893 67.350 amax 69.845 76.118 69.092 emean 0.362 0.444 0.355 emin 0.346 0.428 0.338 emax 0.378 0.462 0.371 imean 39.866 39.855 39.901 imin 39.536 39.378 39.565 imax 40.362 40.433 40.371 excite_mean 0.736 0.780 0.733 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.601 2.571 2.599 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 83.3 93.9 93.8 kozaiamp 71.8 180.0 75.0